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Heightened tensions in the Middle East, including the possibility of Iran attacking Israel, sent stocks back down and oil prices higher. If the choice is between a weak economy with lower rates or a strong economy with higher rates, we'll take the strong economy every time. Low rates may help with valuation multiples, but it's a strong economy that leads to earnings growth and that's what we, as long-term investors care about. Shelter costs are a major sticking point for overall inflation, which makes Tuesday's housing starts and building permits report a key watch item. We'll get another look at housing with the release of the March existing home sales report on Thursday.
Persons: we've, we'll, Morgan Stanley, Wells, bode, we're, Goldman Sachs, Charles Schwab, Johnson, ERIC, JB Hunt, Kinder Morgan, DR, Ally, Huntington, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Abbott, Ethan Miller Organizations: Dow Jones, Wednesday, Federal Reserve, Abbott Labs, Cardiovascular Systems, Diagnostics, Procter & Gamble, Constellation Brands, Procter, T Bank, Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, BK, PNC Financial, PNC, Ericsson, United Airlines, Interactive, ASML Holdings, US Bancorp, Citizens, Alcoa, CSX, Discover Financial, Nokia, Alaska Air, Blackstone BX, McLennan, Netflix, PPG Industries, Gamble, Financial, American Express, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Las Vegas Convention, Getty Locations: Iran, Israel, China, Marsh, Las Vegas , Nevada
But what if I told you this group shrunk its share count dramatically since 2019? The numbers tell the story: Lennar now has 276 million shares outstanding, down from 318 million five years ago. Other than Toll, most of the homebuilder management teams do not emphasize this fundamental change in share count. Management has been buying hand over fist since 2019, shrinking the share count to 215 million from 264 million. My rather unassailable conclusion is pretty simple: Check the share count before you buy a stock.
Persons: PulteGroup, DR Horton, , Douglas Yearley hadn't, homebuilders, Jim Umpleby, Eaton, Dow, Cummins, Elliott, Marc Benioff, Colette Kress, Williams, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Mike Blake Organizations: Federal Reserve, DR, Management, Dick's, Goods, Abercrombie, Fitch, Williams, Walmart, Caterpillar, DuPont, Marathon Petroleum, Elliott Management, Valero Energy, Pacific, Norfolk Southern, CSX, Apple, Microsoft, NFL, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC Locations: tatters, California, Sonoma, America, Williams Sonoma, San Marcos , California
With Wednesday's hot purchasing managers' numbers that demonstrate the strength of both the service and manufacturing portions of the economy, it's even more doubtful that we will get rate cuts soon. After all, inflation is the most ruinous force against us, and we must be sure it does not come back. We don't want rate cuts because the economy is weak. Additionally, rate cuts foment inflation, and that won't help the stock market, either. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Persons: let's, it's, DR, FactSet, , Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Squawk, Virginia Sherwood Organizations: Federal, White, Silicon Valley Bank, Dupont, Texas, Nvidia, Netflix, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC Locations: U.S, Silicon
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch audio feature in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Procter bucking the trend: However, inflation at Club holding Procter & Gamble has gone down with input costs coming in lower. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, It's, Johnson, DR Horton, Jim, hasn't, Procter, Gamble, Ford, Morgan Stanley, Estee Lauder, Stanley Black, Decker, Salesforce, Baird, it's, Jim Cramer's Organizations: CNBC, Procter, Gamble, Verizon, GE Healthcare, 3M, DR, Club, Meta, Citi, DR Horton, Disney, Netflix, World Wrestling Entertainment, Costco, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: Wells, China
CNBC's Jim Cramer suggested an uneven start to earnings season makes the Federal Reserve's March decision on interest rates hard to predict. Cramer unpacked earnings results from some of the many companies that reported on Tuesday. Higher rates lead DR Horton to offer mortgage incentives so that customers would buy homes, Cramer said. But some companies' reports showed inflation is still a real issue, he added. "We have so many stocks that've rallied because buyers were betting on low inflation, a strong economy, and a series of rate cuts," Cramer said.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, Horton, Greg Hayes, DR Organizations: DR, GE
New York CNN —For over a year, the red-hot housing market has been at the mercy of the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes, which have driven mortgage rates to sky-high levels. Mortgage rates have hovered above 7% since August, according to Freddie Mac data. Both those factors have helped create a scorching-hot housing market and a boom in homebuilder stocks, as Americans turned to building as a buying alternative. Moderating bond yields could change the narrative for the housing market. Tight supply and elevated mortgage rates this year made home purchases the least affordable they’ve been since 1984.
Persons: Bell, Freddie Mac, Toll, DR Horton, Lennar, Price, Steve Sosnick, , John Petrofsky, Chris Isidore, Danielle Wiener, Bronner, haven’t, Clare Duffy, Donie, Meta Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New, New York CNN, Homeowners, DR, Federal, Treasury, Interactive, National Association of Home Builders, FBB Capital Partners, Starbucks, United Auto Workers, SAG, Writers Guild of America, Starbucks Workers United, Facebook, Street, Washington Post Locations: New York, Wells Fargo, Buffalo , New York, United States, Brazil, Israel, Italy
CNBC's Jim Cramer on Tuesday gave his take on earnings as the season draws to a close, saying that sectors as a whole managed to perform fairly well. "When you look at all the groups, this was not a disappointing earnings season at all," he said. He argued that Alphabet also reported positive results, he said, adding the stock may have "roared" if management had better explained issues with the company's cloud business. He also said that companies in the utilities sector reported positive figures, but were hurt primarily because of the bond market. "Aside from Whirlpool and drug company Pfizer, I've been very impressed with pretty much every company that's reported so far," Cramer said.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, industrials, DR, Toll, I've Organizations: Microsoft, Apple, Intel, Whirlpool, Pfizer Locations: Pulte, DR Horton
Morning Bid: Some payback, but bonds hug gains on oil
  + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
The oil price slide was helped by signs from Israel that it's open to pauses in the Gaza fighting. The typically hawkish Minneapolis Fed boss Neel Kashkari insisted it was still too early to take another rate hike off the table. Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its policy interest rate again, as expected, by another quarter point to a 12-year high of 4.35%. Overall, the global stocks picture reflected some of the cooling of last week's rally and some of the China export numbers. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Lucas Jackson, Mike Dolan, that's, Neel Kashkari, Christopher Waller, Michael Barr, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Jeffrey Schmid, Zimmer, Jack Henry, Akamai, Christina Fincher Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Minneapolis Fed, International Monetary Fund, Reserve Bank of Australia, Asia bourses, UBS, Credit Suisse, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Michael Barr , New York Fed, Dallas Fed, Horton, Mosaic, Emerson Electric, Occidental, Devon Energy, Products, Chemicals, Gen, Fidelity, Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, Israel, Gaza, China, Asia, Japan, Hong Kong, Swiss, Canada, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Michael Barr ,, Lorie Logan , Kansas, eBay, Gilead, Occidental Petroleum
Lower Treasury yields could be good news for some stocks on Wall Street, according to Jefferies Equity Research. Stocks soared on the news, even as Fed Chair Jerome Powell insisted that efforts to tame persistent inflation have further to go. Treasury yields pulled back after the the November Federal Open Market Committee decision, with the benchmark 10-year note falling 15 basis points. With interest rates now seemingly on the backfoot, Jefferies screened for stocks with a negative correlation to the 10-year Treasury — meaning they historically benefit from lower interest rates. Stocks have a negative correlation to U.S. bond yields, notably 5- and 10-year yields Tech behemoth Microsoft is one of the outstanding beneficiaries to a decline in the 10-year.
Persons: Stocks, Jerome Powell, Dow Jones, Jefferies, Peramunetilleke, Piper Sandler, Horton, Wells, Goldman Sachs, Blackstone, companyies, Michael Bloom Organizations: Treasury, Jefferies Equity Research, Federal Reserve, Labor, Dow, Microsoft, Horton, Jefferies, Blackstone, Vista Equity Partners, Energy Locations: 2H23, Horton
Daniel Bustamante, the hedge-fund CIO who won big in his short bet against shares of Carvana last year, is now betting millions of dollars that the housing market will slow significantly. Bustamante's call for home prices is an outlier in terms of where most Wall Street economists see the housing market headed. ATTOMAnother sign that things may go sour in the housing market is that institutional investors, or "smart money", has increasingly stopped buying residential properties, he said. RedfinAgain, Bustamante sees significant downside to home prices ahead. Recession warnings on Wall Street have become quieter in recent months as jobs and consumer spending data have held up.
Persons: Daniel Bustamante, DR, they'll, Bustamante, Bustamante anecdotally, ATTOM Organizations: Bustamante & Co, KB, Federal, National Locations: Carvana, Maricopa County , Arizona
But finding the right fit isn't always easy, thanks in part to the old-school practices of most homebuilders. Vyshnevska and Hnatkovskyy launched NewHomeMate (formerly PropertyMate) in 2020, as the housing market was beginning to reach a fever pitch. Earlier this year, the company announced that it had raised a $5.5 million seed round from funders to expand and grow its vision. "Many people realized that now is the best moment to buy homes, even with high interest rates, if you see where rent is going across much of the United States, and their only real option is new construction," Hnatkovskyy said. Vyshnevska and Hnatkovsky walked Insider through the pitch deck they used to raise their $5.5 million seed round with some confidential financial information redacted.
Persons: homebuyers, Sofia Vyshnevska, Dan Hnatkovskyy, Vyshnevska, Hnatkovskyy, DR, Hnatkovsky Organizations: DR Horton Locations: homebuilders, United States
CNN —Home builder stocks are on a tear, boosted by a jump in demand as some Americans shun the historically tight and unaffordable market for existing housing. The Federal Reserve’s bid to bring down inflation by raising interest rates has sent US mortgage rates soaring over the past year. That’s been a boon to home builder stocks. That helped lift some home builder stocks, though many still slipped in August along with the broader market. Labor Day weekend gas prices are near all-time highsDrivers hitting the road this Labor Day weekend will be greeted by historically high gas prices for this time of the year.
Persons: That’s, Pultegroup, DR Horton, Lennar, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, DR, NVR, Anna Rathbun, Ethan Allen, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN —, Federal, Toll, Bank of America, Berkshire, CBIZ Investment Advisory Services, Labor, CNN, AAA, government’s National Bureau of Statistics Locations: China, Beijing,
With housing, Buffett chooses a great location
  + stars: | 2023-08-30 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
WASHINGTON, Aug 30 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Mortgages are pricey, but Warren Buffett seems to think that’s a good thing for homebuilders. Horton (DHI.N), Lennar (LEN.N) and NVR (NVR.N), just as mortgage rates hit the highest level in nearly 23 years. That’s 3% less than last year, and 7% less than the average used-home price today. Horton, NVR and Lennar on Aug. 14. The conglomerate, run by billionaire investor Warren Buffett, purchased $726 million, $71 million and $17 million of DR Horton, NVR and Lennar shares, respectively, throughout the second quarter, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing.
Persons: Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, D.R . Horton, Horton, NVR, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Sharon Lam Organizations: Reuters, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Buffett, Berkshire, Securities and Exchange Commission, Mortgage Bankers Association, Census, Thomson Locations: . Berkshire, D.R ., Horton, U.S, New York, Los Angeles, Berkshire, that’s, homebuilders D.R, DR
Getty Images / Michael BucknerWarren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway established stakes in a trio of homebuilders last quarter: Lennar, NVR, and DR Horton. The positions were worth a combined $814 million — a small bet in the context of Berkshire's roughly $350 billion stock portfolio. Buffett's portfolio managers, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, were likely behind the purchases given their size. On the other hand, it exited its wagers on McKesson, Marsh & McLennan, and Vitesse Energy in the period. Buffett and his team also pared their positions in Activision Blizzard, Chevron, Celanese, General Motors, and Globe Life.
Persons: Warren Buffett Warren Buffett, Michael Buckner Warren, Berkshire Hathaway, DR, Todd Combs, Ted Weschler, Buffett Organizations: Getty, Capital, Occidental Petroleum, McLennan, Vitesse Energy, Activision Blizzard, Chevron, General Motors, Globe Locations: Capital One, Marsh, Celanese
Data on Tuesday showed China's industrial output and retail sales growth slowed in July, adding to concerns about a faltering post-pandemic recovery in the world's second-biggest economy. China's major state-owned banks stepped into the spot market to steady the currency, according to sources. Chinese policymakers last month released a batch of stimulus measures, including boosting auto and home appliances consumption, relaxing some property restrictions, and pledging support to the private sector. Over in Australia, wage growth held steady in the June quarter while the pace of annual pay awards unexpectedly slowed. That, along with the release of dovish minutes from the central bank's July policy meeting, bolstered bets that the RBA would keep rates steady.
Persons: Ankur Banerjee, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, DR, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse, REUTERS, Staff, Ankur, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Silicon, Germany, Asia, China, Pacific, Japan, Australia, U.S, Berkshire, Sweden, Singapore
CNBC's Jim Cramer gave investors his top sectors and stocks to watch following Tuesday's weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid more than 300 points as concerns over China's economy began to mount. The country's July economic data broadly missed expectations, and the National Bureau of Statistics' report did not include youth unemployment numbers. Cramer recommended investors consider infrastructure stocks because the U.S. government is investing heavily in that sector, signaling out equipment manufacturer Caterpillar and steelmaker Nucor . Cramer also recommended drug stocks like Eli Lilly , homebuilding stocks Lennar and DR Horton as well as tech giants like Nvidia .
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, Eli Lilly, DR Organizations: Dow Jones, National Bureau of Statistics, Caterpillar, Boeing, Honeywell, DR Horton, Nvidia
Berkshire Hathaway logo is displayed on a screen on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 10, 2023. Berkshire said that as of June 30, it owned about 5.97 million DR Horton shares worth $726.4 million, about 153,000 Lennar shares worth $17.2 million, and 11,112 NVR shares worth $70.6 million. Larger investments are usually Buffett's, and investors often try to piggyback on Berkshire's moves, reflecting Buffett's reputation as an investor. The selling included 45% of Berkshire's stake in General Motors (GM.N), whose shares fell 1% after hours. Its largest stock holding by far remained its $177.6 billion stake in Apple (AAPL.O).
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett, Benjamin Moore, Berkshire, Todd Combs, Ted Weschler, Jonathan Stempel, Lewis Krauskopf, Marguerita Choy, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Berkshire Hathaway, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Berkshire, Clayton Homes, DR Horton, DR, BNSF, General Motors, Apple, Capital, Globe, Marsh & McLennan, Vitesse Energy, Thomson Locations: Berkshire, New York City, U.S, Manville, Marsh, New York
Cramer says don't get too caught up in top-down analysis
  + stars: | 2023-07-31 | by ( Julie Coleman | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
CNBC's Jim Cramer told investors on Monday not to solely rely on analysts' top-down, broad market assessments. According to Cramer, it's imperative to also pay attention to micro-analysis of a company's performance when buying individual stocks. "After all these years, I've come to know one immutable truth: There's no monopoly on stock market knowledge," Cramer said. Top-down analysts, Cramer said, might fixate on how the Federal Reserve's rate hikes might affect the company. Cramer stressed that he is not just "cherry-picking" names and instead said there are many companies that often defy macro expectations.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, I've, G, Procter, DR, Lennar Organizations: Procter & Gamble, homebuilders, Boeing
We know there are so many reasons why this bull market has eluded so many. It's sudden broadening into health care, transports and financials just when we were told the bull was slain by its lack of breadth. I hope readers here know that I felt that only by tuning out the Fed could you make maximum money in the market. You simply had to ignore the verbiage, block out the gasbags who simply failed to see the two-staged bull market right in front of them. Needless to say, if you needed any evidence that we are in a bull market, the rally in that dog may be enough to make the prosecution rest.
Persons: Jerome Powell's, Powell, It's, Joe Biden's, Powell's, that's, Larry Fink, DR Horton, Powell didn't, IPOs, David Solomon's, Goldman Sachs, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Steve Squeri, Squeri, Jeff Marks, Jeff, Johnson, Elliott Management's, Lauder, Jackson, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Victor J Organizations: Federal, Dow, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, AS, Blackrock, DR, Western Alliance, FTC, Federal Trade Commission, Justice Department, Club, Microsoft, Activision, American Express, DuPont, Constellation Brands, Disney, Fed, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Visitors, New York Stock Exchange, Blue, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: Washington, IPOs, Cava, Wyoming
Morning Bid: Tesla, Netflix underwhelm
  + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
[1/2] A Tesla logo is seen outside a showroom of the carmaker in Beijing, China May 31, 2023. REUTERS/Thomas Peter/File PhotoA look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanAn overdue cold shower? July 20 (Reuters) - The first of the supercharged Big Tech firms to report in this earnings season - Tesla and Netflix - seemed to underwhelm markets overnight, cutting across the enthusiastic reception for big banks and knocking back bulled-up Wall St from 2023 highs. Although electric car giant Tesla (TSLA.O) comfortably beat second quarter profit forecasts, markets seized on plans for continued price discounting and squeezed margins as a reason to drag its shares down almost 4% in overnight trading. In the fixed income world, Treasury yields crept back higher ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting.
Persons: Thomas Peter, Mike Dolan, Dow Jones, McLennan, Philip Morris, WR, DR Horton, Janet Yellen, John Organizations: REUTERS, Big Tech, Netflix, Overseas, Citizens, US Bancorp, Energy, Healthcare, Abbott Laboratories, Johnson, Blackstone, Truist Financial, American Airlines, Marsh, WR Berkley, CSX, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Housing, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Beijing, China, U.S, Russia, Britain, Newmont, Freeport, McMoRan, DR, Philadelphia, Turkey, South Africa, Vietnam
Sales are unlikely to recover any time soon, as mortgage rates weigh heavy on affordability. Mortgage rates hung in the mid 6% range during that time and then shot up over 7% at the very end of May. The higher end of the market, however, appears to be recovering. While sales were down across all price points, they were down least at the higher end. Sales are unlikely to rebound soon in the existing home market, but sales of newly built homes are reaping the benefits.
Persons: Lawrence Yun, Yun, DR Horton, Donald Horton Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Realtors
Wall Street landlords raised $110 billion to buy homes but have had a quiet year. One large transaction, and one large listing, could signal that investors are ready to start buying. The single-family rental market, a popular playground of Wall Street landlords in 2020 and 2021, has been in a deep-freeze for the last year. Rising borrowing costs and a shakier housing market halted most transactions, leaving idle much of the $110 billion raised to buy homes. The company, which was valued at nearly $2 billion last year, says it has facilitated more than $5 billion in deals.
Persons: dealmaking, Goldman Sachs, Don Mullen, DR, Barry Sternlicht's, redemptions, Gary Beasley, Roofstock, Allison Arest, Topping, Beasley, Morgan Stanley's, Ellen Zentner, Jay Powell, LeMaistre, everybody's Organizations: Bloomberg, Barry Sternlicht's Starwood Group, Fed Locations: Beach
CNBC's Jim Cramer told investors on Monday the market is ripe with untapped potential. "When you look underneath, this market's not all that concentrated," Cramer said. "Much of the gains in this market are, indeed, in aggregate concentrated in a handful of huge tech companies. "Here's the bottom line: the strength away from tech is undeniable," Cramer said. "It's time to open our eyes to what's really happening rather than being blinded by the big cap tech light."
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, We've, DR, Eaton, Emerson, you'll Organizations: Apple, Facebook, Boeing, General Electric Locations: Pulte
The rate of cancellations has dropped nearly to what was seen during the peak of the pandemic housing boom. A March survey by John Burns Research and Consulting found that builders reported an aggregate cancellation rate of 9% for purchases of new homes under construction. KB Home, for example, said its cancellation rate for the first three months of 2023 stood at 36%, down from 68% the quarter prior. "As we entered the spring selling season during the quarter, we began to see an increase in [housing] demand," Jeffrey Mezger, chief executive of KB Home said in March. "This reflected in part the targeted sales strategies we deployed, together with a stabilizing mortgage interest rate environment.
I have not been bombarded with as many warnings about how we are about to embark upon a wave of failures of all sorts — shadow banks, regional banks, commercial real estate lenders, real estate investment trusts — at any time since 2007. Let's take commercial real estate. I mention SL Green because it may be the most challenged of the REITs, real estate investment trusts, other than Vornado Realty Trust (VNO), a historically fine New York real estate concern, which just delayed its dividend. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
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